Abstract:
This paper investigates the key macroeconomic and structural factors driving graduate unemployment
in India from 2011 to 2023. Using Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression, supported by Ridge
Regularization, it examines the impact of government expenditure on higher education, GDP growth,
higher education enrolment (GER), labour market informality, sectoral employment trends (services
and industry sectors), and regional income disparities (NSDP per capita) on the aggregate graduate
unemployment rate.
Findings reveal that GDP growth, public spending on higher education, labour market informality, and
services sector employment are positively and significantly associated with graduate unemployment,
suggesting jobless growth and inefficiencies in public investment. Industrial sector employment has a
negative effect, highlighting its role in graduate job absorption. GER and NSDP per capita are
statistically insignificant, which suggests that higher education access and income levels alone do not
ensure better graduate employment outcomes.
The study recommends evidence-based policies that promote skill-based training, better industryacademia linkages, formalization of jobs, and inclusive industrial growth to address underemployment
and harness India’s demographic dividend.
|
